Solar News: The International Energy Agency (IEA) presented two new analyses in Valencia, Spain this week, a Solar Photovoltaic Energy Technology Roadmap and a Concentrating Solar Power Technology Roadmap.
A key long-term finding from these analyses is that 20-25% of global electricity production could be from solar electricity by 2050.
We’re curious: how does the US fit into that, and how much of this will be residential solar?
Together, IEA found that photovoltaic solar (aka ‘solar PV‘) and concentrating solar power could create 9,000 Terawatt hours of electricity in 2050, with solar PV providing approximately half of that.
As of 2008, IEA reported that the US had 1.2 Gigawatts of installed solar PV. Although the total amount has been rising over the years, the US’ percentage of the world total has declined, from 18% in 2000 to 13% in 2004 to 8% in 2008. Germany and Spain, with strong world-leading solar policies, have grown at a much faster rate. Nonetheless, recent analyses by the Solar Energies Industry Association (SEIA) in its 2009 US Solar Industry Year in Review show a steep rise in installed capacity in 2009 and a lot in the pipeline (indiciating that this steep rise may continue for awhile).
The average cost of solar PV has dropped significantly and combined with innovative group buying programs like 1BOG offers and government incentives, many more people are putting solar panels on their houses and businesses.
Prices for solar PV modules dropped 40% since mid-2008 and average installed capacity cost fell approximately 10% from 2008-2009 (see graph below).
Largely as a result of this, installed solar capacity at the end of 2009 rose to 2.1 Gigawatts in the US according to SEIA.
The European Photovoltaic Industry Association (EPIA) also recently reported that “The U.S. [PV electricity] market finally took off significantly with around 477 MW installed in 2009 and appears as a potential leading market for the coming years.”
Environment America has reported that 35-40% of homes nationwide could have PV installed on them. With 13% of utilities believing that centralized electric generation will be obsolete by 2050 and rooftop solar installations growing faster than utility-scale solar, this may not be a fairytale dream but an actual possibility.
There are a lot of incentives out there and people are finally doing it. Want to join the solar wave? Look into putting solar on your home or business today.
Government’s Role
Of course, as Environment America reported a couple months ago when they predicted that 10% or more of total electricity consumption in the US could come from solar energy by 2020, clear policies to support solar energy need to be implemented soon in order to achieve these levels. Progressive policies need to be implemented to make sure solar achieves grid parity and becomes competitive with other forms of electricity.
“This decade is crucial for effective policies to enable the development of solar electricity,” IEA Executive Director Nobuo Tanaka said. “Long-term oriented, predictable solar-specific incentives are needed to sustain early deployment and bring both technologies to competitiveness in the most suitable locations and times.”
Solar PV
IEA reports that solar PV will reach grid parity (the point at which solar electricity and regular grid electricity are equivalent) in many regions by 2020, and that at that point policies in those regions will need to shift from a focus on economic incentives to a focus on fostering self-sustaining markets with continued support for grid access and R&D.
Key actions to promote PV electricity in the next 10 years or so include tho following, according to IEA:
• Provide long-term targets and supporting policies to build confidence for investments in manufacturing capacity and deployment of PV systems.
• Implement effective and cost-efficient PV incentive schemes that are transitional and decrease over time so as to foster innovation and technological improvement.
• As PV matures into a mainstream technology, grid integration and management and energy storage become key issues. The PV industry, grid operators and utilities will need to develop new technologies and strategies to integrate large amounts of PV into flexible, efficient and smart grids.
• Governments and industry must increase R&D efforts to reduce costs and ensure PV readiness for rapid deployment, while also supporting longer-term technology innovations.
• There is a need to expand international collaboration in PV research, development, capacity building and financing to accelerate learning and avoid duplicating efforts.
• Emerging major economies are already investing substantially in PV research, development and deployment; however, more needs to be done to foster rural electrification and capacity building. Multilateral and bilateral aid organisations should expand their efforts to express the value of PV energy in low-carbon economic development.
• Develop and implement appropriate financing schemes, in particular for rural electrification and other applications in developing countries.
• Increase R&D efforts to reduce costs and ensure PV readiness for rapid deployment, while also supporting longer-term innovations.
Concentrating Solar Power (CSP)
IEA reports that by 2050, CSP could provide up to 11.3% of global electricity. It “can be expected to become a competitive source of bulk power in peak and intermediate loads by 2020, and of base-load power by 2025 to 2030.”
Key actions IEA says governments should take within the next 10 years to promote CSP include:
• Ensure long-term funding for additional RD&D in: all main CSP technologies; all component parts (mirrors/heliostats, receivers, heat transfer and/or working fluids, storage, power blocks, cooling, control and integration); all applications (power, heat and fuels); and at all scales (bulk power and decentralised applications).
• Facilitate the development of ground and satellite measurement/modelling of global solar resources.
• Support CSP development through long-term oriented, predictable solar-specific incentives. These could include any combination of feed-in tariffs or premiums, binding renewable energy portfolio standards with solar targets, capacity payments and fiscal incentives.
• Where appropriate, require state-controlled utilities to bid for CSP capacities.
• Avoid establishing arbitrary limitations on plant size and hybridisation ratios (but develop procedures to reward only the electricity deriving from the solar energy captured by the plant, not the portion produced by burning backup fuels).
• Streamline procedures for obtaining permits for CSP plants and access lines.
The goals are clearly attainable now. To achieve them, governments just need to step it up and set the stage for greater solar proliferation.
Photo Credit: david.nikonvscanon via flickr/CC license
Graph Credits: SEIA
May 14th, 2010 at 1:57 PM
Cool thing you’re doing. Just saw a news item on MSNBC.com. See http://bgladd.blogspot.com/2008/04/00143.html
May 14th, 2010 at 4:36 PM
Funny “Prices for solar PV modules dropped 40% since mid-2008 and average installed capacity cost fell approximately 10% from 2008-2009 (see graph below).”
So PV panels dropped 40%, but cost for installation is only down 10%?
or am I reading that wrong?
that means solar companies get to pocket the difference!
May 17th, 2010 at 11:04 AM
Ken, that is a good point. Yes, basically, the module cost is down 30% more than things like the cost of inverters, mounting hardware, labor, permitting and fees, shipping, overhead, taxes and.. profit. Interestingly, New Berkeley Lab found that the drop in average installed cost was largely due to non-module cost reductions from 1998-2007, so… maybe things are balancing out now?… Not sure exactly of the reason but it would be an interesting topic to look into.
May 30th, 2010 at 10:33 AM
Solar Power is just incredible, me and my wife have recently just added 6 cells to our garage roof. This is used to power our boiler for our hot water. Were thinking of also getting some more storage batteries so we can power more of our home.
August 22nd, 2010 at 4:40 PM
Many home solar units are going in and all helps. But it is only as governments come on board with it that we will see change on a big scale. Also as more solar panels are made hopefully the price will come down a bit. The initial outlay seems to be the only disadvantage, with lots of other advantages. We still need to do all we can to preserve our environment for future generations.
Ian.